Trust me there is much more than my ancestral roots why I would like to discuss Uttrar Pradesh Elections. It is the biggest of all the states... a state which has given the most number of Prime Minister's to the country but more importantly a state which more often than not dictates political climate of the country.
So what's happening there... If you go a bit deep and ask people around and when I say people I mean people of all sections and strata, caste, religion, education background and perhaps economic status there is one thing which seems to be so common, and that is this election is perhaps played at semi final stage, the final is somewhere later. Perhaps 2014 or may be perhaps much earlier than that. Needless to say there is subtle winds of change, a sure positive sign that almost after 15 years of dogmatic politics this season is ripe to sow some seeds which will bear positive fruits in future.
Essentially a quadrangular contest where SP and BSP will emerge at the top half and BJP and Congress will come down below. Chances are very high that BSP will emerge as a single largest party there but it might not end up doing what it was felt perhaps a month ago... i.e. some 45 odd seats. I would imagine that they will not even tough SP tally of 2004 i.e. 39 seats.
BSP has been perhaps the most mysterious party of this elections. A party that has shunned media like never before. Mayawati has not given a single interview all along the campaign trail and the only person who has been in news among that party has been S.C. Mishra. BSP over the last decade or so has quite successfully created this rain bow coalition of extreme backwards and the Brahmins in UP. The coalition that actually propelled her to that landslide majority in the Assembly Election a few seasons ago. But this collation is facing some serious challenges this time. And to top it up for Mayawati it is facing the challenger from both sides. The Upper Caste or the Brahmin's who supported her in a big way last Assembly Election is moving towards BJP due to the general disenchantment towards BSP and with BJP gaining some ground. Also Congress which is trying hard to get back to it's core support base is seriously wooing the Dalit vote. In a nut shell Mayawati is worried about this particular vote bank slipping away from her though her anger and vengeance still continues for Mulayam Singh and his Samajwadi Party.
Samajwadi Party led by Mulayam Singh Yadav perhaps needs to do good more than any other party and looks like is facing a battle of survival. This party needs not only to do good in the polls but also wants to play a role of King Maker in the post election scenario otherwise it might just miss the bus. Though his hold over his core support base of Yadavs is still intact but should worry Mr Yadav is that Muslims who supported him and his party so whole heartedly ever since the demolition of Babri Masjid is not averse to look for options. It still needs to be seen whether seeking the support of Former UP Chief Minsiter Kalyan Singh and his Lodh community and agonising the Muslim vote bank will reap benefits or will this be a tactical blunder by Mulayam Singh. I suspect the later as it is now becoming more clearer that Muslims are moving away from him due to Kalyan Singh. Another point where Mulayam Singh lost it even before this election race started was when he failed in getting Congress into a electoral alliance. This also might just prove costly for him.
For Congress this might be the time they have been waited for long. They still might not increase their tally of seats substantially but make no mistake their vote share will increase. Their organization looks far more active and support base far more confident. For them this is surely the Semi Final and they will keenly await the Final where they would like to square off their position.
That leaves me on Bhartiya Janta Party. A party which had a meteoric rise due to the Saffron Wave post demolition of Babri Masjid finds it self in a rather sorry state. Lack of grass root political workers, absence of leader of national stature and you suddenly find big gaps in this party. The party might still be strong in the cities but it will require a lot of luck and perhaps more voting percentage to get a few seats more than expected. Rajnath Singh BJP President fighting for Ghaziabad parliamentary seat needs BJP to do well in UP and esp in his own seat. There has been considerable debate over Rajnath's future in BJP as President and a good show will make things easy for him. Once a breeding ground for BJP for it's national level grass root leaders namely Vajpayee, Murli Manohar and Kalyan Singh this party finds a total vacuum in that spectrum. The vacuum is so evident that Varun Gandhi was lapped by it's traditional vote bank the moment he made those not so famous speeches. Many among them thought here is one who speaks what we would like to listen. BJP for it's all past need to seriously introspect and start building the base from the very basics for this is one state which has always supported it and it's policies.
And finally where do they all stand post 16th of May 2009...
I would imagine Congress to get 5 seats, BJP around 12, SP around 25-30 odd and BSP getting around 35 seats. Well Congress and BJP would take poll apart position ( How ever I wish the otherwise ....) and I feel BSP moving towards that alliance where she will be more in demand. In other wise she will like to support the party which she would find more dependent on her and a bit unstable. That is where is she can extract the maximum premium.
SP has technically no option, it has to and has to align with Congress for the possibility of Third Front Government is as high as you would get Pamela Anderson in streets of Lucknow. The worst scenario for SP will be if the Government at centre is formed with Mayawati's support and more so if it is a Congress Led UP Government.
